Occasionally we take a break from politics and turn our attention
to weightier matters, such as our annual prediction of who will be elected to
the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame.  It is a Ruthian task,
indeed. 

It’s that time of year again…the votes have begun to be tabulated
for the Baseball Writers Association of American (BBWAA) Hall of Fame (HOF)
ballot.  The BBWAA voting is underway now and the results will be
announced on January 23, 2024.  Each year we at BTRTN analyze the
ballot – in-depth, analytically — to answer two questions:  

1)   Which nominees do we predict will be
elected in this year’s voting, receiving at least 75% of the
vote of the BBWAA? 

2)   Which nominees deserve to
be in the HOF, based on our own analysis (and opinions)?  

The two lists are never identical.

For the first question – our prediction of who will be
selected — we use various statistical models (based on the candidates’ stats
and, for those returning to the ballot, how they’ve done in prior years) to
come up with an initial estimate of the percentage of the vote they will
receive, and then overlay that with a dose of judgment.  For the
second question – who should be in the HOF — we have
developed a methodology to compare nominees to their same-position predecessors
to determine their “Hall-worthiness.” 

A few notes before we get into our answers.  First, we
are aware that Hall of Fame votes are once again being publicly tabulated, as
members of the BBWAA announce them (some writers do publicly, some
don’t).  I have not looked at those tabulations.  The truth is,
they are actually not very helpful in making predictions, because the writers
who reveal their votes publicly tend to differ quite a bit from their more private
counterparts, especially on the more controversial candidates.  So
one can easily be misled by the public tally, because it is not a statistical
sample of the entire BBWAA voting universe.  So we ignore the
trackers ongoing tabulations entirely, and rely instead on our own analysis.

{Author note:  This article was first published on December 17,
2023 and has not been revised since.}

Second, we recognize the continued welcome trend of fewer players
on the ballot, which appears to indicate that there is a better process in
place for weeding out players who are, to be blunt, completely unworthy of
consideration.  As recently as 2019 there
were 35 players on the ballot, including the trivia-worthy but nowhere near Hall-worthy
Rick Ankiel.  Ankiel’s true claim to fame
was that he pitched and then hit as a position player at the major league level,
multiple seasons in both roles.  But he
was neither Babe Ruth nor Shohei Ohtani, nor even Smokey Joe Wood.  I don’t mean to pick on Ankiel, but he
compiled a career WAR of 6 (yes, six),
which means that he was essentially a replacement player for his entire career.  Typically you need of WAR of at least 50 to
merit consideration for the Hall. 
Anyway, this year’s ballot has only 28 players, and the lowest WAR among
them was recorded by Brandon Phillips, who achieved a respectable (if not
Hall-worthy) 28.  Bravo, ballot makers!

Finally, it would be wonderful to report that the steroid era is
over, but unfortunately that is not the case. 
Four of the top 11 vote-getters on the 2023 ballot were tainted by
performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) and they are back again: Andy Pettitte,
Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriquez and Gary Sheffield (who is on his 10th and final ballot).  Our custom is to not consider
the Hall-worthiness of the PEDsters, for reasons we have enumerated many
times.  In a nutshell, we believe they
violated a clear rule of the game, established by Fay Vincent in 1991, a
violation that materially affected the outcome of games and artificially
inflated the users’ statistics, at the expense of their peers who were not
users, fellas named Jeter, Ripken, Rivera, etc.  We have heard every
counterargument under the sun, including those who cite baseball’s lax
enforcement of the prohibition in the era, and that the HOF is full of sinners,
and we reject those arguments and others.  Our view is that the PED
players are, ipso facto, all unworthy for consideration. 

Last year we also said that that policy also extends to
then-newcomer Carlos Beltran.  Beltran
was not involved with PEDs, but he was team leader (and, even
worse, ringleader) of the Houston Cheatin’ Astros, the tainted 2017 World
Series Champs, the only player named in the official report.  This was a material offense that affected many,
many games and influenced statistics (like wins and losses), much like the use
of PED’s, and we are comfortable in denying Beltran consideration on this
ballot.

HOW DID WE DO LAST YEAR?

We rather immodestly bill ourselves as “The Best MLB Hall of Fame
Predictors,” but that might be accurate since, as far as we know, we are the only HOF
predictors left since Bill Deane gave it up a few years ago after making
predictions for nearly four decades.  We’d welcome some
competition!  But last year we just may
have actually lived up to that rather grand self-designation.

·       
We accurately predicted that Scott Rolen would make the Hall of
Fame, and be the only one on the ballot to do so.

·       
We also were quite close in predicting the “jumps” that a number
of returning candidates would have, including the top five vote-getters (Rolen,
Todd Helton, Billy Wagner, Andruw Jones and Jeff Kent)

·       
Perhaps the hardest thing to predict is the number of votes a
viable first-time candidate will get, and we came reasonably close on Beltran
despite his complicated, compromised candidacy (he received 47% and we
predicted 39%) and were almost dead-on with Frankie Rodriquez (11% actual
versus 10% predicted).

·       
The only candidates for whom we were appreciably “off” were Gary
Sheffield, who we thought would jump more in Year 9 on the ballot than he did, and
Andy Pettitte and Mark Buehrle, who both jumped instead of declining, as we
predicted, though each at low levels of voting.

You can see how we did for each player on the ballot on this
chart.

Overall, we were off by an average of just 2.2 percentage points per nominee, our
best showing ever.  Whatever you may
think of the performance, we are clearly improving!

WHO WILL BE ELECTED?  THIS YEAR’S
PREDICTIONS

On to this year!  And here is our most important
prediction:  BTRTN predicts that the
BBWAA will elect Adrian Beltre, Todd Helton and Billy Wagner to the MLB Hall of Fame. 
Beltre will be a deserved first-ballot selection and Wagner and Helton will
both finally make it after long climbs from low initial vote tallies.

The chart below shows the complete voting history (in percentages)
of all the returning players. 

Last year was a good
year for repeaters, as there were no first-year candidates that were sure bets for
induction, allowing votes to “migrate” to the top repeaters, which is why they
made those double digit “leaps.”  This
year may be nearly as good, as Rolen and 10-year expiree Jeff Kent have
departed the ballot and only one near certain candidate, Adrian Beltre, has
arrived.  So there remains, as there was
last year, ample vote “capacity,” and that could easily help the top three
returning vote getters who are all reasonably close to the 75% threshold, Todd
Helton, Billy Wagner and Andruw Jones.  They
all have been on an upswing that continued last year, and, after last year’s
jump are all in sight of Cooperstown immortality.  We think Helton and Wagner will get there,
but Jones will fall short. 

The next five top
vote-getting returnees are all steeped in controversy.  Sheffield, Rodriguez and Ramirez are all
tainted with PED’s (as well as Andy Pettitte, further down the ballot); Ozzie
Vizquel has been accused of multiple instances of abuse; and Beltran wears the
aforementioned cheater label.  None of
the returners showed any real momentum last year, and we don’t expect them to
this year either.  Beltran, in his second
year, is the one to watch.  We expect him
to get a bump and if it is big enough he may ride that to Cooperstown in a few
years.

The big question is how well the other newcomers will do,
specifically Joe Mauer and Chase Utley.  We
don’t see either as first-balloters, but each should get a solid level of first
ballot support, enough to begin their quest, which could take time if they
start out below 50%, as we expect.

The remaining returners are in make-or-break land, with low vote
totals that, if they begin to decline, could result in washing out in a few
years.

So, what’s the answer?  Here’s the summary chart of this
year’s ballot, including our official BTRTN 2024 Hall of Fame predictions
(expressed as percentage of the total vote).  We have also included
in this chart our views on which candidates belong in the HOF.  For
the explanations of those ratings, read on.

WHO SHOULD BE IN THE HALL OF FAME?

The second question we ask annually is this:  putting
aside what the writers think, who on the ballot do we think is
“Hall-worthy”? 

We believe Adrian Beltre and Billy Wagner,
who as noted we predict will be elected, are both worthy of being in the HOF.  We also think that three other players on the
ballot should be in the HOF, though we don’t think they will
be elected this year:  Andruw Jones,
Francisco Rodriguez and Chase Utley.  I know
what some of you are thinking…what, no Todd Helton?  No Joe
Mauer?  Read on!

To arrive at our conclusions, we use the following analytic
methodology.  We compare each player to Hall of Famers and “just
misses” (among those whose careers started after 1950) at his position across a
number of key statistics, both traditional (hits, homers, RBI’s and batting
average) and non-traditional (OPS+ and WAR).  To get a sense of how
they were valued “in their time, “ we also look at their number of All Star
selections and times appearing in the Top 10 in the MVP balloting (for
pitchers, we use an identical methodology but, of course, with various pitcher
stats instead).  

We show the average statistics by position.  So we will
compare, say, Todd Helton to first baseman and Jimmy Rollins to shortstop.  Within each position, we compare the nominee,
getting back to Helton in this example, to first basemen who are in these four
groups:

·        The “top half” of all post-1950 HOF first
basemen, using a ranking based on WAR. 
(This group, for first baseman, includes Jeff Bagwell, Rod Carew, Frank
Thomas, Jim Thome and Eddie Murray)

·        The “average” of all post-1950 HOF first basemen
(all those plus the list below)

·        The “lower half” all post-1950 HOF first basemen
(Willie McCovey, Harmon Killebrew, Fred McGriff, Tony Perez, Orlando Cepeda and
Harold Baines)

·        The “next ten,” the ten post-1950 first basemen
who have the highest WARs among those who are not in the HOF
(using just last names, Allen, Hernandez, Clark, Olerud, Cash, Teixeira, Grace,
Delgado, Mattingly and Powell).

The last two groups define the so-called
“borderline” candidates.  Our general feeling is that to be worthy of
the HOF, a candidate should be at least as good and probably materially better,
on balance, than the last two groups.  Thus, they have to be better than
borderline candidates, most of whom are either not in the HOF (the “next ten”)
or include at least a few players (like Baines) who should never have been
enshrined in the first place, and reside in the “lower half.”  (We
are not rigid, and you will see, we make exceptions.)   We also
take into account a player’s postseason performance.

Last year we change the methodology to eliminate from the
comparisons all players whose careers began before 1950.  The
statistics before 1950 have various issues (pre-integration, World Wars, the
dead ball era, the inflated 1930’s, etc.) and, with a solid base of players in
the last 70 years to draw from, we thought it was time to make the
change.  (We include a few players whose careers started in the
1940’s just to make sure we have a “large enough” comparison group.)

Again, we do not include the PED players or Beltran in this
analysis.  We stipulate that if we just looked at  their stats alone, and accepted them at face
value, all the PED players except, perhaps, Andy Pettitte, would make the Hall
of Fame.

On to the analysis!

Catcher

The catcher spot is back after having no nominees in 2023, with
Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez gracing the ballot.  But this one gets complicated right off the
bat, because neither Mauer nor Martinez played even half of their games at
catcher, so we have to get a little creative to ensure the right comparisons
are made.

Joe Mauer is a pretty tough case.  Many fans think they have a “feel” for who should be in the HOF and I suspect many think Mauer is a lock.  But I have to disagree.  It is important to note that Mauer played just under half of his games at
the catcher position.  The average for
post-1950 HOF catchers is 81%.  Mauer
played most of the rest at first base, and some at DH.  Thus you cannot compare Mauer as a hitter strictly to other catchers – you have to compare him to first basemen as well, too (there are
very few pure DH’s in the HOF, but their hitting profile is similar to first
basemen).  So, in the charts above, we
have created a 50/50 split between the HOF and Next 10 catchers and first basemen.   (Since Victor Martinez also played fewer
than half his games at catcher, and also split his remaining games between
first base and DH, the comparisons work for him as well.)

Mauer fares poorly in this comparison.  Only his career batting average is elite in
these comparisons.  His WAR rises only to
the level of the “lower half” HOF group, his OPS+ falls short, and his homers
and RBI fall well short.  Mauer was not
exactly a post-season dynamo, either; in 44 postseason plate appearances, he
batted only .275 with no homers and exactly one RBI.  (To be clear, his stats, apart from batting average and hits, alsofall short compared to the pure catchers as well.)  The case for Mauer rests with his four Top 10
finishes in MVP balloting, which speaks to his impact for a brief period at the
peak of his game.  But, unfortunately,
those four years were accompanied by  two other very good years and nine others that were exceedingly modest.  Mauer will likely get a fair number of votes
in the balloting, but the view here, which will likely be unpopular, is a thumbs down. .

Victor Martinez holds up surprisingly well in comparison to Mauer,
besting him on the power stats, but he too suffers in comparisons when the
first baseman are included.  His 32 WAR in
particular is a killer – a fine hitter but a terrible fielder and baserunner —
and he too is a thumbs down.

First Base 

Every year I take a lot of heat from Rockies fans for my views on
Todd Helton, now in his sixth year on the ballot.  He is joined on the ballot this year by
fellow first sacker Adrian Gonzalez.

Todd Helton is an exceptionally difficult case, the hardest on the
ballot.  You have to take into account the “Coors Field” high
altitude effect that inflates any Rockie’s stats.  Helton’s OPS+ overall
is down with the borderlines, and, if you break this stat down further,
Helton’s home/road OPS splits are 1.048/.855.  The .855 is not Hall-worthy
for a first baseman. Helton’s WAR of 61 is excellent, right in line with the
average for HOF first baseman, and WAR is a park adjusted
figure.  And yet, his power stats are low, as are his All-Star and
MVP votes.  We went to the postseason stats to see if they would help
him but, alas, he went 11-66 (.167) with no homers and a mere four
RBI.  This is a toughie, but we had to give  Helton a difficult thumbs down.

Adrian Gonzalez.  AGon was not as hard.  His stats almost perfectly line up with the
“Next 10 non-Hall of Fame” line, just about stat for stat, and that is where he
belongs, on the outside looking in, a fine career to be sure, but thumbs
down. 

Second Base 

Jeff Kent is gone, having been denied his due (we’ve always thought he was Hall-worthy) and
he is replaced on the ballot by Chase Utley and Brandon Phillips. 

Chase Utley.  Yet
another difficult case (the 2024 ballot is full of pesky cases to consider).  Utley was a power hitting second baseman, not
in Jeff Kent’s class but certainly up there with the greatest second basemen,
the top tier HOF’ers at the position. 
While his average is a little low and his career was not as long (thus
depressing his hit total), he really is up there with the greats on homers,
RBI, OPS and WAR, above HOF averages on all of them.  (His WAR also reflects the fact that he was a
terrific fielder.)  With six all-star
selections, three Top 10 MVPs and 10 postseason homers, I give Utley a thumbs up. 

Brandon Phillips is the weakest player on the ballot, though at
least he’s worthy of the honor of being on the ballot at all (i.e., he’s no
Rick Ankiel).  He had some nice pop for a
second baseman, but quite low OPS+ and WAR, and you simply cannot make the Hall
of Fame if you’ve never received a Top 10 MVP ranking, in any year.  So a thumbs
down here. 

Shortstop 

We have two returnees at
shortstop, Omar Vizquel and Jimmy Rollins, and one newcomer, Jose Reyes, and we
don’t think any of them are truly Hall-worthy.

Omar Vizquel did well in the balloting in his first three years,
establishing a voting track record (37%/43%/53%) that seemed well on the way to
enshrinement.  But after a series of abuse charge (separate incidents
involving sexual harassment and domestic violence), Vizquel plummeted in 2022 (24%)
and dropped even more last year (20%). 
It seems unlikely that he will be able to recover in his remaining three
years on the ballot.  But, regardless, we never considered Vizquel to
be HOF-worthy.  The only offensive stat he really has going for him,
in comparison to the peers, are his 2,877 hits (which he compiled over 24
seasons).  But there is no getting around his OPS of only 82, which
settles the matter on the offensive side.  He was an excellent defender,
with 11 Gold Gloves, and 129 “runs saved” in his career.  But he was
no Ozzie Smith or Mark Belanger, who had 239 and 241, respectively (and even
Craig Counsell had 127), and his defense could not pull his WAR to HOF
standards, not even close.  He made only three All-Star teams in those 24
years and was never a Top Ten finisher in the MVP balloting, so, scandals
aside, we have always had him as a thumbs down.

Jimmy Rollins stats are largely better than those of the non-HOF
borderline group, but they are generally below the lower half HOF group, in
particular his OPS (which is below the league average for his career) and his
WAR.  He only managed three All Star selections, though he did win an
MVP in 2007.  But the view here is thumbs down.

Jose Reyes.  Like AGon, Reyes’ stats almost perfectly line up with the “Next 10
non-Hall of Fame” line, just about stat for stat.  He does have 517 stolen bases going for him,
in an era that de-emphasized the steal, but that along cannot lift his boat,
and so he is another thumbs down. 

Third Base 

With Scott Rolen’s deserved induction, and Chipper Jones’s in
2018, third basemen, long underrepresented in the HOF, are finally getting
their due.  Adrian Beltre is a shoo-in to
join them, and David Wright is another who is at least worthy of consideration.

Adrian Beltre is not only a
certain Hall of Famer, and should be a first ballot one at that, he is actually
among the greatest third basemen of all time (his WAR is exceeded only by Mike
Schmitt and Eddie Mathews).   While his
OPS+ is on the light side, his other stats are monstrous and worthy of the top
tier.  He was also a superb fielder, and
his high WAR reflects his defensive acumen. 
He was certainly underrated in this time – there are not many players
who have more Top 10 MVP vote appearances (six, in his case) than All Star
games (four).  Beltre should sail in, thumbs up. 

David
Wright is a much better
candidate than I would have thought before looking into it.  He is sort of like Mattingly and Mauer, in
that after a brilliant start to his career, injuries diminished him (his last
good season was at age 30) and then finished him (done at 33, save for a few
games at 35).  The difference is that
while he was brilliant, he was not as dominant as they were, never wore the
“best player in the game” tag, and never won an MVP, despite four Top 10
finishes.  Apart from batting average and
OPS+, his stats are not Hall-worthy per the comparisons with other third
basemen in the chart, and his WAR is low, even slightly below that of the “Next
10.”  Thumbs down. 

Outfield

We have three returning
outfield candidates, and two solid newcomers to ponder, Matt Holliday and Jose
Batista.

Andruw Jones is an interesting case, with that very pedestrian .254
batting average and relatively low 111 OPS+. 
His candidacy hinges on those 434 homers and a 63 WAR that reflects his superlative
defensive skills.  He had 253 “runs saved” for his career, an astounding
number exceeded only by Brooks Robinson.  That is truly impressive,
and Brooks Robinson is a good comparison for Jones, as Robinson also was not a
superlative hitter.  Jones, like Robinson,
had fine power stats, superb defense and an excellent WAR that reflects both, plus
solid postseason credentials.  For Jones,
as for Brooksie before him, that means a thumbs up.

Bobby Abreu is a better candidate than
you might think, and a surprisingly difficult case.  His power stats
are above average for a HOF outfielder, but his OPS+ and WAR are
borderline.  His stats are almost completely aligned with the bottom
half of HOF outfielders, which gave me pause.  But he only made two All
Star games in his career and never once was a Top 10 MVP vote getter, so it’s
hard to make a case that he was recognized as one of the very best players of
his generation.  And he played in 20 postseason games and put up just one
homer and nine RBI.  Another thumbs down.

Torii Hunter, like Andruw Jones, has a “great fielder, solid hitter” profile,
but the comparison for HOF purposes does not quite hold.  Hunter was
a slightly better hitter than Jones, on balance, but light years away from
Jones defensively.  He did win nine Gold Gloves, but unlike Jones,
who won 10, modern defensive stats don’t quite back up Hunter’s reputation as
they do for Jones.  As noted, those stats reveal Jones to be one of
the transcendent defensive players of all time, but try as I might, I could not
find Hunter among the top 250 in Total Zone Runs.  He had fantastic
defensive years early in his career but did not match that in later years (and
won Gold Gloves off that reputation).  And that ultimately shows up
in his WAR, which, at 51, is well below Jones, Abreu and the borderline
groups.  All in all, another reasonably tough call, but we give
Hunter a thumbs down.

Matt Holiday was a fine hitter and his stats land
somewhere in the range of the “Bottom Half” and the “Next 10,” which makes him
the definitive borderline Hall of Famer.  
What sinks his candidacy are his low WAR (which reflects in part his
below average defensive skills) and the fact that only once did he crack the
Top 10 in MVP voting (though he also finished, at various times, in 11th, 12th,14th,15th
and 16th place).  He also was subpar in many postseason
appearances; despite 13 homers, he batted only .245 with a .723 OPS, well below
his regular season stats.  Another
excellent ballplayer who does not quite have enough for the HOF, a tough thumbs
down.

Jose Batista had one of the great nicknames (“Joey
Bats”) of our time, and he was a professional hitter all the way.  He broke through relatively late in his
career, with 54 homers at age 29 in 2010, and put up impressive numbers for
five more years.  But it was a case of
too little, too late, as he did not even reach 1,500 hits (no batter has made
the Hall of Fame, apart from a few catchers, without reaching that total), and
with a 37 WAR, he is a pretty easy thumbs down.

Starting Pitchers 

We recognize that the sands are shifting for the criteria to
evaluate starting pitches for the Hall of Fame.  Long gone are the
days of complete games and 20-game winners, and Justin Verlander may be the
last pitcher to seriously threaten to crack the 300-win club, though he now
seems a long shot.  While he pitched well
last year, with 13 wins and a 3.22 ERA in 27 starts, he remains at 257 wins,
and at age 41 as of opening day next year, he appears to be at least three
years away from 300 even if he is able to maintain his 2023 level.  

Indeed, Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright, who achieved the
200-win milestone in 2023, may be the last ever to reach even that mark.  Only Gerrit Cole, who is 33 and has 145 wins,
may have a shot at 200, if he can put 4-5 more good years on the tally sheet.

So our comparisons will change in light of this, and thus we will
deemphasize wins, won/loss percentage and innings pitched in our little chart,
and put more focus on ERA+ and WAR, which are only modestly affected by the new
requirements for starters (six good innings is the ask), as well as All Star
Games, Cy Young Awards and postseason records.

This year Mark Buehrle returns to the ballot, and he is joined by
Bartolo Colon and James Shields.

Mark Buehrle is certainly one of the better 21st century
pitcher, a member of the 200-win club.  He hangs reasonably well with
the borderline groups, which essentially means he is a borderline candidate,
nothing more.  In fact, he is another player whose statistics are
very comparable to the “Next 10” group.  His
All Star recognition is also a bit low, though he won a Cy Young.  He
did nothing special in the postseason, despite multiple
opportunities.   I find myself being tough on the borderliners,
and simply can’t find enough to get to “Yes.”  So we have to
say thumbs down to Buehrle.

Bartolo Colon.  Colon is an immensely
likeable character, seemingly ageless, taking the ball for 24 starts at age 45
in his final season in 2018.   Colon also
performed one of those wondrous feats, when he memorably clubbed the first home
run of his career at age 43.  Baseball
has too many bland players these days, and when Colon retired, baseball lost
more than a 247-win pitcher, they lost a singular personality.  But alas, Colon is not a viable Hall of Fame
candidate, not with a 4.12 ERA, an ERA+ of 106 which means barely better the
league average for his career, and a WAR of only 46, well below all four of the
HOF comparison groups in the charts. 
With regret, Bartolo is a no go, a thumbs
down for the Hall.

James Shields.  Shields was a durable
pitcher in his years with the Rays, Royals and Padres, delivering 10 straight
years of 30+ starts and 9 straight with 200+ innings, figures that now look
downright remarkable.  But the cold hard
facts are that he was even more pedestrian than Colon in terms of ERA+ (very
close to the league average) and WAR (down near Brandon Phillips), and thus
another thumbs down.

Relief Pitchers 

There are no new relief pitcher candidates, just two holdovers,
Billy Wagner and Francisco Rodriguez.

There are only 31 relievers who have saved 300 or more games in
their careers, including three who are active (Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen,
who both surpassed 400 last year, and Aroldis Chapman).  Of the 28
retirees, eight are in the HOF.  We use 300 saves as a standard –
essentially a price of entry to be considered for the HOF — because 7 of the 8
HOF relievers achieved that mark.  Only Hoyt Wilhelm had fewer, and
he toiled in an era when the term “closer” was not even in use; indeed, the
save was not even an official stat (it became one in 1969, very late in
Wilhelm’s 21-year career).  But nonetheless Wilhelm compiled a 50
WAR, a figure that has been exceeded among relievers only by the incomparable
Mariano Rivera.

The role of closer has also evolved, from a rubber-armed,
multi-inning stud to a specialist who toils only in the ninth
inning.  Yankee HOF closers Rich Gossage, who averaged 1.8 innings
per appearance in his career, and Rivera, who averaged 1.2, embody this
transition. The closer role may evolve further in the coming years, as managers
have started to question the logic of saving their best reliever for the ninth
inning when, say, the heart of the opponent’s order is due up in the
eighth.  So defining what it takes for a reliever to make the HOF is
a moving target, and not an easy one.  But we press on with a range
of statistics to try to capture the overall sense of what is HOF-worthy.

Billy Wagner’s statistics are amazing, and voters are now finally catching on,
as Wagner has advanced in his eight years on the ballot from 11% to
68%.  There is time for the BBWAA to finish the deed, and I feel
quite confident that they surely will, this year or next (his last).  The stats are certainly there:  he
has well over 422 saves and a 1.00 WHIP that is – incredibly – equal to Mariano
Rivera’s (and better than Trevor Hoffman’s 1.06).  His stats compare
favorably to the average of the eight relievers in the HOF.  Wagner is
a thumbs up – he is simply one of the greatest relievers of
all time.

Francisco Rodriguez is not that far behind Wagner, though not
his equal.  He too recorded over 400 saves – at 437, more than Wagner’s
422, in fact – but his WHIP is higher and his WAR is lower.  But his
stats, including his All Star selections and top 10 appearances in the Cy Young
voting, hold up well against the average HOF reliever group (and Wagner), and
so, without too much effort, I give Frankie a thumbs up as well.

‘*****************************************************************************

That’s it!  We’ll be back after the announcement to see how we did.  In the meantime, comments welcome, of course.  Let’s see who yells louder, the Twins fans or
the Rockies fans!