Projected WAR for Players G>20
Obviously, the Angels have been hindered by injury. I wanted to see by how much. I first calculated the projected Offensive WAR for each player if they played all 162 games (I removed players who played less than 20 games). Then I took the top 9 in projected WAR, and assigned them a position. Lets call this group the “Healthy Angels”. I calculated the sum of the Healthy Angels’ team projected WAR, assuming that healthy teams rest their players say 15% of all games. Finally, I looked at a couple of other playoff teams to see what their top 9 position players’ WAR was. I selected 9 players based on who got the most playing time per position, not the highest WAR or their projected WAR.
Executive Summary:
– Healthy Angels WAR: 26.8
– Playoff teams generally hover around 30 WAR
– Healthy Angels had a higher WAR than the Orioles (25.3) or Diamondbacks (25.4)
Issues in Analysis:
– I did not do projected WAR for all the playoff teams. If I did the data would change quite a bit. For example, Diamondbacks’ Gabriel Moreno’s WAR is 4.3. If he played all 162 games, his projected WAR would be 6.3. The Diamondbacks with an everyday Gabriel Moreno now have a greater WAR than the Healthy Angels.
– Of course, these stats don’t reflect real baseball. You can’t expect to trot O’Hoppe or Moreno out behind the dish all 162 games.
– Doesn’t take into players getting better or worse, just continuing averages
– I don’t take into account WAR of pitchers, just the offense
Anyways, this post was more a fun “What If” type question rather than something super detailed and iron-tight. Do Angels make the playoffs if everyone is healthy? Beats me
