No accurate measure exists for the performance of a manager. No metric similar to Wins Above Replacement exists, and even WAR is only an estimate of a player’s value that different publications calculate differently.

Two statistical comparisons help explain why the Milwaukee Brewers’ Craig Counsell is one of the best managers in the game, and potentially one of the biggest free agents this offseason. Yet those comparisons, too, offer an incomplete picture, failing to entirely capture how Counsell gets the most out of his teams with bottom-half and sometimes bottom-third Opening Day payrolls.

Counsell, 53, took over as Brewers manager on May 4, 2015. The team set a franchise record by reaching the postseason four straight years from 2018 to ‘21, then missed by one game last season. As September begins, it stands a 97 percent chance of making the playoffs and 79 percent chance of winning the NL Central, which it leads by three games with 29 to play.

Those are the raw results, impressive on their own merit. They demonstrate, as Counsell nears the end of his contract, why he deserves to be one of the highest-paid managers in the game. Information about managers’ salaries is not readily available, but it is believed no current manager is above $5 million. The market has dropped since Joe Torre topped out at $7.5 million in his final season with the Yankees in 2007, and Bruce Bochy, Mike Scioscia and Joe Maddon each commanded $6 million salaries in 2018.

If Counsell, who resides in his native Whitefish Bay, Wis., is willing to leave the Brewers, a team that once employed his father, John, rival teams almost certainly would snap to attention.

Counsell’s most obvious landing spot could be the Mets, who soon might hire his previous boss in Milwaukee, David Stearns, as president of baseball operations. The Mets on Thursday fired multiple people within their front office, clearing a path for their new top executive to bring in his or her own people. Other teams, though, figure to be interested in Counsell, and possibly willing to dismiss their current managers to get him.

Can confirm Kevin Howard is no longer with the Mets. He was director of player development. Likely that there are other changes as well. First with news: @mikemayer22, @MarinoMLB.

— Will Sammon (@WillSammon) August 31, 2023

Rival executives routinely marvel at the Brewers’ scrappy, opportunistic style. Counsell’s teams generally outperform Fangraphs’ preseason projections, which are based on each team’s schedule, projected performance and 20,000 simulations of the season. They also generally outperform their Pythagorean won-loss records, which estimate the number of games the team should win based on their run differential.

Here are the Brewers’ records compared to their preseason projections in Counsell’s eight full seasons as manager, including the shortened 2020 campaign:

* – projected finish
Source: Fangraphs

And here are the Brewers’ records compared to their Pythagorean won-loss records during Counsell’s tenure:

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Again, these measures do not present fully accurate portrayals of Counsell’s performance. Preseason projections do not account for injuries, trades and other unforeseen events. A wide split between a team’s Pythagorean won-loss and actual record are sometimes attributed to the quality of a team’s bullpen, or just plain luck.

Bill James, in his annual handbook, quantifies how many lineups a manager uses, how many substitutions he makes, his number of quick and slow hooks, intentional walks, stolen-base and sacrifice attempts. Those numbers, though, reveal a manager’s style more than his success. There is no way to quantify perhaps a manager’s most important skill, particularly in an era when he often serves as a buffer between his front office and players: His ability to communicate and hold his clubhouse together.

Those qualifiers aside, Counsell’s records compared to his preseason projections and Pythagorean won-loss records compare quite favorably to four other managers whose first full season was in 2016 or earlier — the Guardians’ Terry Francona, Rays’ Kevin Cash, Mariners’ Scott Servais and Dodgers’ Dave Roberts.

Of that group, only Roberts’ Dodgers have outperformed the Brewers’ preseason projections by a greater number of combined wins, including projected totals for this season. And only Servais’ Mariners have outperformed the Brewers’ combined Pythagorean win-loss record — and by only one win, thanks to outlier seasons in 2018 and ‘21.

The work of Counsell’s three general managers in Milwaukee — Doug Melvin, Stearns and now Matt Arnold — obviously has been instrumental in the team’s performance; the Brewers are built around two homegrown aces, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, and a third pitcher they acquired in a trade at age 19, Freddy Peralta. Scouting, player development and, of course, the performances of the players themselves, all contribute to a manager’s record.

For all his success, Counsell never has won Manager of the Year, finishing second three times, fourth once and seventh once. That award, like everything else when it comes to evaluating managers, is based on subjective judgments. The winner often is the manager whose team finished with the greatest flourish, or exceeded the expectations of the voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America by the greatest amount.

Counsell rarely has the best narrative. His teams just keep on winning. If the Brewers lose him, they will not be the same.

(Photo of Craig Counsell: Jeff Dean / Getty Images)