Ohtan is 29. 30 is when you start to see ball players decline, and father age remains undefeated no matter how unprecedented you are. Look at what happened to Trea Turner this season, dude has fallen off a cliff after he just signed his 300/11 year contract at age 30. To tie up $600mm to one player is insanely risky no matter how much production he historically brought.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/08/04/shohei-ohtani-free-agency-contract/

This guy projected out Ohtani’s future years and he’s valuing his onfield performance only somewhere between $300-400mm based on his expected decline.